Just as Lew Dub predicted in his recent video on the Melbourne Cup Order Of Entry, Twilight Payment (58kg) is posted to number 2 and Sir Dragonet at number 3. While Lew Dub wrongly predicted Spanish Mission would receive the number 1 rank and top weight, he is still wet up in the rankings at number 5 and set to carry 57kg. Meanwhile the official top weight and number one in the Order of Entry was given to Sonnyboyliston who won the Irish St Leger at the weekend, after Lew Dub had cut his video.
What Lew Dub did have wrong was the impact of achievements that had occurred years ago. Vow And Declare is at 10 in the Order Of Entry and that is due to handicapping rules that ensure a G1 winner is forced to carry a minimum weight based on career achievements. A genuine shock to me is the horse Think It Over who is at number 8 in the Order Of Entry. The 6 year old gelding has won at G1 level, but over 1500m. He recently won G2 Chelmsford Stakes over 1600m, obviously the distance a horse wins at affects weights for all future races. We live and learn.
Incentivise the Aussie bred, Aussie owned hope was also a shock to me in terms of ranking but he did claim a G1 after I produced my Anticipated Melbourne Cup Order Of Entry video. He is ranked at number 7 and set to carry 55.5kg, though he may receive a penalty if he wins the Caulfield Cup.
There are some positives to being wrong about some aspects of the Official Order Of Entry and that is that some of the runners inside the top 24 already are the type that you can say, ‘non winner’. I won’t mention any names, but remember some owners just want to be able to say I have a runner in the Melbourne Cup. And to be fair it is the biggest event in horse racing in this country – just consider the jockey parade through the streets of Melbourne the day before the cup.
For a copy of the Official Order Of Entry hit this link.